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Hire Matthew B.

United Kingdom

USD 75 /hr

Geospatial & Environmental Data Scientist | Natural Hazards | Earth Observation & GIS | 20 years of research experience

Profile Summary

I am a geospatial and environmental data scientist with experience in physical geography, natural hazards, and Earth observation. My work focuses on using satellite data, GIS, and quantitative analysis to understand environmental change, assess risk, and support evidence-based decision-making. Particular expertise in Geohazards - volcanoes and earthquakes. I have authored 45+ peer-reviewed publications in leading journals (e.g. Remote Sensing of Environment, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate) and secured over £500k in research funding from organisations including UKRI, the European Commission, and the Royal Society. My research spans volcanic activity monitoring, wildfire dynamics, hydrological modelling, and climate–hazard interactions, often integrating multi-source datasets (e.g. thermal, atmospheric, and geophysical time series) with statistical and machine learning approaches. Technically, I specialise in GIS and remote sensing workflows using tools such as ArcGIS Pro, QGIS, Google Earth Engine, and ESA SNAP, alongside programming in Python, R, and MATLAB for data analysis, modelling, and automation. I have extensive experience handling large environmental datasets, developing reproducible analytical pipelines, and translating complex outputs into clear, actionable insights. Alongside research, I lead and design university-level programmes in geospatial and environmental data science, supervise postgraduate research, and have delivered over 25 international field courses. I regularly work at the interface between academia and applied practice, including consultancy-style projects, curriculum development, and contributions to interdisciplinary teams. I am particularly interested in projects involving geospatial analysis, environmental modelling, remote sensing data processing, and academic research support (including study design, data analysis, and publication development). I am a native English speaker with extensive experience in academic writing, editing, and publication in high-impact international journals.

Subject Matter Expertise

• ☆ Remote Sensing
• ☆ Earth & Atmospheric Science
• ☆ Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
• ☆ Geography & Cartography
• ☆ Cartography
• ☆ Seismology, Tectonics & Volcanology
• ☆ Geology
• ☆ Geomorphology

Services

• Writing
• Research
• Data & AI

Writing Technical Writing, General Proofreading & Editing

Research Scientific and Technical Research

Data & AI Predictive Modeling, Statistical Analysis, Image Processing, Image Analysis, Data Visualization, Big Data Analytics, Data Processing, Data Insights

Work Experience

Reader

Coventry University

January 2010 - Present

Coventry University

- November 2025

Research associate

King's College London

January 2008 - December 2009

Tutor

London School of Economics Department of Economics

September 2007 - December 2009

Tutor

King's College London

September 2005 - December 2009

Education

PhD Remote Sensing (Geography)

King's College London

October 2004 - October 2009

Certifications

• Certificate in Teaching English to Speakers of Other Languages

  Cambridge

  April 2025 - Present

• Senior Fellow

  Higher Educaiton Academy

  January 2024 - Present

• Postgraduate Certificate of Higher Education Practice

  Coventry University

  January 2012 - Present

Publications

JOURNAL ARTICLE

Matthew Blackett, Carolina Gallo, Bastien Dieppois, Yann Quilcaille, Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, Peter Z. Fulé, Igor Drobyshev, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jonathan M. Eden (2025). Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multimodel Ensembles . Journal of Climate.

Future impacts of climate change on global fire weather @article{d7748774e5474e6e92e4e22d7f17abeb, title = "Future impacts of climate change on global fire weather: Insight from weighted CMIP6 multi-model ensembles", abstract = "Climate is a key driver of spatiotemporal variability in wildfire regimes. Increasingly warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are linked to an increase in fire danger across the world. There is therefore a need to develop the most reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger to enable decision makers and forest managers to prepare for and respond to future fire events. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations are the foundation for understanding future changes in fire-conducive weather associated with a warming world. Fire weather projections have typically been expressed by a single model or through a multi-model mean, with the models{\textquoteright} relative strengths and weaknesses rarely taken into consideration. This study presents a novel set of future scenarios in fire-prone conditions, defined by the Fire Weather Index, using a statistical weighting approach that specifically accounts for the performance and interdependence of 26 ESMs from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). When compared with reanalysis-derived data from 1980 to 2014, the weighting approach substantially reduces multi-model bias, thereby demonstrating its added value in accounting for and reducing model uncertainties. The weighted projections reveal significant increases in seasonal fire weather conditions across 68-91\% of the world{\textquoteright}s fire-prone area by the end of the 21st century, depending on the emission scenario. Additionally, at least 55\% of fire-prone area is expected to be associated with a significant increase in fire weather conditions by 2040. The conclusions highlight the potential benefit to targeted prevention strategies and long-term fire management.", keywords = "Climate change, Climate models, Model evaluation/performance, Wildfires", author = "Carolina Gallo and Bastien Dieppois and Yann Quilcaille and Chiriac{\`o}, \{Maria Vincenza\} and Ful{\'e}, \{Peter Z.\} and Igor Drobyshev and Jes{\'u}s San-Miguel-Ayanz and Matthew Blackett and Jonathan Eden", note = "This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses)", year = "2025", month = nov, day = "15", doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0540.1", language = "English", volume = "38", pages = "6445–6462", journal = "Journal of Climate", issn = "0894-8755", publisher = "American Meteorological Society", number = "22", } . Journal of Climate.

Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather @article{cc264055cedf4c969a4cb7958ef15d74, title = "Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming", abstract = "In response to the occurrence of several large wildfire events across the world in recent years, the question of the extent to which climate change may be altering the meteorological conditions conducive to wildfires has become a hot topic of debate. Despite the development of detection and attribution methodologies for climate change impact assessment in the last decade, studies dedicated explicitly to wildfire, or otherwise extreme {\textquoteleft}fire weather{\textquoteright}, are still relatively few. Here, for the first time, a global probabilistic framework is developed to examine the extent to which externally forced changes in historical global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMSTA) affected the intensity and duration of fire-conducive weather extremes, defined by the Fire Weather Index (FWI). We use six climate model large ensembles (>10 ensemble members) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to extract the forced response of GMSTA. After evaluating the performances of these climate models in simulating fire weather extremes, we examine changes in the probability of fire weather extremes using extreme value distributions, fitted with annual maxima in both FWI intensity and duration, and scaled to externally forced GMSTA. Global probability ratio maps are used to quantify the influence of rising global temperatures on the changing frequency and duration of FWI extremes, and highlight the sensitivity of estimates of historical changes in extreme fire weather to the climate model ensemble chosen for the analysis. A multi-model synthesis accounting for performance of each model confirms an increasing trend in the probability and duration of extreme fire weather linked to externally forced changes in GMSTA, with the largest increases found in southern North America, south-eastern Europe and parts of Australia. The results of the selective synthesis differ from those obtained via a conventional multi-model averaging that does not account for model performance, thereby demonstrating the value added by model evaluation and selection in maximising the robustness of probabilistic attribution studies.", keywords = "CMIP6 multi-model large ensembles, Climate change attribution, Extreme value statistics, Fire weather, Wildfires", author = "Zhongwei Liu and Jonathan Eden and Bastien Dieppois and Igor Drobyshev and Folmer Krikken and Matthew Blackett", note = " This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ", year = "2025", month = sep, doi = "10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822", language = "English", volume = "252", journal = "Global and Planetary Change", issn = "0921-8181", publisher = "Elsevier B.V.", } . Global and Planetary Change.

Decision‐making under flood predictions @article{436a0ab3f20f48a688505ace2f6ff937, title = "Decision‐making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate", abstract = "Flood models, while representing our best knowledge of a natural phenomenon, are continually evolving. Their predictions, albeit undeniably important for flood risk management, contain considerable uncertainties related to model structure, parameterization, and input data. With multiple sources of flood predictions becoming increasingly available through online flood maps, the uncertainties in these predictions present considerable risks related to property devaluation. Such risks stem from real estate decisions, measured by location preferences and willingness-to-pay to buy and rent properties, based on access to various sources of flood predictions. Here, we evaluate the influence of coastal flood predictions on real estate decision-making in the United Kingdom by adopting an interdisciplinary approach, involving flood modeling, novel experimental willingness-to-pay real estate surveys of UK residents in response to flood predictions, statistical modeling, and geospatial analysis. Our main findings show that access to multiple sources of flood predictions dominates real estate decisions relative to preferences for location aesthetics, reflecting a shift in demand toward risk averse locations. We also find that people do not consider flood prediction uncertainty in their real estate decisions, possibly due to an inability to perceive such uncertainty. These results are robust under a repeated experimental survey using an open access long-term flood risk map. We, therefore, recommend getting flood models “right” but recognize that this is a contentious issue because it implies having an error-free model, which is practically impossible. Hence, to reduce real estate risks, we advocate for a greater emphasis on effectively communicating flood model predictions and their uncertainties to non-experts.", keywords = "coastal flood modeling, flood prediction, real estate risk, uncertainty, willingness-to-pay", author = "Avidesh Seenath and Mahadeo, \{Scott Mark Romeo\} and Matthew Blackett", note = "This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.", year = "2025", month = jul, doi = "10.1111/risa.17706", language = "English", volume = "45", pages = "1899--1925", journal = "Risk Analysis", issn = "0272-4332", publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd", number = "7", } . Risk Analysis.

Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment @article{be4693e46b164b04b64eda0894c908b7, title = "Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment", abstract = "The R-TopModel hydrological model coupled with two landslide and flood probability distribution models was applied to simulate the daily hydrological conditions of a small catchment in the Midlands of the British Isles, throughout 2017. Originally, the methodology was applied to a risk area in the tropical region. In this work, the application was extended to mid-latitude watersheds. The hydrographic basin around the Carsington Water dam (located in the Midlands of the Great Britain) is chosen because it presents risks. The model Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for the upstream discharge from the Carsington Water dam reached 50\% with a correlation coefficient of the order of 70\%, an acceptable value considering the seasonal effects of the dam on evapotranspiration and higher soil permeability. Modeling the distribution of soil moisture and excess surface water allowed obtaining the spatial distribution of the maximum conditional probability of landslides and floods in the Carsington Water catchment. These probability maps obtained are consistent with long-term susceptibility maps for Great Britain", keywords = "R-TopModel, Hydrometeorological hazards, Carsington Water-UK", author = "Karam, \{Hugo Abi\} and Matthew Blackett and \{da Silva\}, \{Raphaella Barros Pereira\} and Rojas, \{Jose Luis Flores\} and Filho, \{Augusto Jos{\'e} Pereira\} and Pe{\~n}a, \{Cesar Arturo Sanchez\} and Panduro, \{Isela Leonor V{\'a}squez\} and Siqueira, \{Brenda Santos\} and Suazo, \{Julio Miguel Angeles\}", note = "This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. ", year = "2024", month = mar, day = "22", doi = "10.11137/1982-3908\_2024\_47\_57297", language = "English", volume = "47", journal = "Anu{\'a}rio do Instituto de Geoci{\^e}ncias", publisher = "Federal University of Rio de Janeiro", } . Anuário do Instituto de Geociências.

Hugo Abi Karam, Matthew Alexander Blackett, Raphaella Barros Pereira da Silva, Jose Luis Flores Rojas, Augusto José Pereira Filho, Cesar Arturo Sanchez Peña, Isela Leonor Vásquez, Brenda Santos Siqueira, Julio Miguel Angeles Suazo (2024). Modeling of Soil Water Distribution in a Small Mid-Latitude Watershed on the British Isle for Short Term Landslide and Flood Risk Assessment . Anuário do Instituto de Geociências.

Mount Etna as a terrestrial laboratory to investigate recent volcanic activity on Venus by future missions @article{60f646cfc4a04db3ab03a1e10d1cdfb7, title = "Mount Etna as a terrestrial laboratory to investigate recent volcanic activity on Venus by future missions: A comparison with Idunn Mons, Venus", abstract = "The recently selected missions to Venus have opened a new era for the exploration of this planet. These missions will provide information about the chemistry of the atmosphere, the geomorphology, local-to-regional surface composition, and the rheology of the interior. One key scientific question to be addressed by these future missions is whether Venus remains volcanically active, and if so, how its volcanism is currently evolving. Hence, it is fundamental to analyze appropriate terrestrial analog sites for the study of possibly active volcanism on Venus. To this regard, we propose Mount Etna - one of the most active and monitored volcanoes on Earth - as a suitable terrestrial laboratory for remote and in-situ investigations to be performed by future missions to Venus. Being characterized by both effusive and explosive volcanic products, Mount Etna offers the opportunity to analyze multiple eruptive styles, both monitoring active volcanism and identifying the possible occurrence of pyroclastic activity on Venus. We directly compare Mount Etna with Idunn Mons, one of the most promising potentially active volcanoes of Venus. Despite the two structures show a different topography, they also show some interesting points of comparison, and in particular: a) comparable morpho-structural setting, since both volcanoes interact with a rift zone, and b) morphologically similar volcanic fields around both Mount Etna and Idunn Mons. Given its ease of access, we also propose Mount Etna as an analog site for laboratory spectroscopic studies to identify the signatures of unaltered volcanic deposits on Venus.", keywords = "Venus, Volcanism, Radar interpretation, Spectroscopy, Planetary geology", author = "P. D{\textquoteright}Incecco and J. Filiberto and J.B. Garvin and G.N. Arney and S.A. Getty and R. Ghail and L.M. Zelenyi and L.V. Zasova and M.A. Ivanov and D.A. Gorinov and S. Bhattacharya and S.S. Bhiravarasu and D. Putrevu and C. Monaco and S. Branca and S. Aveni and I. L{\'o}pez and G.L. Eggers and N. Mari and Matthew Blackett and G. Komatsu and A. Kosenkova and M. Cardinale and \{El Yazidi\}, M. and G. Leone and \{Di Achille\}, G.", note = "This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)", year = "2024", month = mar, day = "15", doi = "10.1016/j.icarus.2024.115959", language = "English", volume = "411", journal = "Icarus", issn = "0019-1035", publisher = "Academic Press", } . Icarus.

Sustainable drainage to address Zika in favelas, Brazil @article{95b61f7fe96847bb887958d05efac813, title = "Sustainable drainage to address Zika in favelas, Brazil: community perspectives", abstract = "The 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Brazil established that neonate microcephaly was related to maternal infection by the virus during pregnancy, the highest densities of which occurred in the north-east and south-east of Brazil, the country{\textquoteright}s most populated areas. These areas were typically associated with informal settlements or favelas, which lacked effective water management, sanitation and drainage; all of these provided suitable breeding environments for the Aedes aegypti mosquito, the Zika virus vector. This paper reports on a novel study of community perceptions around the potential for sustainable drainage systems to provide a means of reducing areas for the mosquito to breed and hence reduce Zika infections in favelas. Interviews were carried out with key external stakeholders working with favelas and members of the favela community. Poor management of water supply, drainage and solid waste were clearly emphasised by participants, illustrating gaps in current research connecting these areas. Participants proposed that only a holistic approach could address sanitation issues, hence the distribution of Zika-carrying mosquitos, subsequent infections and microcephaly. An approach was therefore needed taking account of the environment as a whole, increasing public awareness of sanitation and environmental health, improving sanitation infrastructure and providing adequate systems for solid waste management.", keywords = "developing countries, drainage \& irrigation, favela, justice and strong institutions, sustainable drainage systems, UN SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities, UN SDG 16: Peace, UN SDG 17: Partnerships for the goals, UN SDG 3: Good health and well-being, UN SDG 6: Clean water and sanitation, Zika virus", author = "Charlesworth, \{Susanne M.\} and Debora Kligerman and Frank Warwick and Matthew Blackett", note = "This author accepted manuscript is deposited under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC) licence. This means that anyone may distribute, adapt, and build upon the work for non-commercial purposes, subject to full attribution. If you wish to use this manuscript for commercial purposes, please contact permissions@emerald.com. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 ICE Publishing. All rights reserved.", year = "2023", month = sep, day = "28", doi = "10.1680/jinam.23.00012", language = "English", volume = "11", pages = "191--199", journal = "Infrastructure Asset Management", issn = "2053-0242", publisher = "ICE Publishing", number = "4", } . Infrastructure Asset Management.

Water Management Education in the East African Region @article{5c907b8466ea47e6b5ab7cea8811ff7f, title = "Water Management Education in the East African Region: A Review of the Challenges to Be Addressed", abstract = "Increased urbanisation coupled with inadequate awareness of the public on the issue of freshwater resource management has affected the use and the availability of freshwater resources in urban areas of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Lake Victoria has been the clearest example, with the water level decreasing 0.005 m/year from 1993 to 2016 causing an overall drop of 0.115 m. In order to develop sustainable methods for addressing these issues, this paper critically reviews the different legal frameworks used in each country (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) adopted to manage the water resources and identifies the challenges faced by each legal framework applied. It also analyses the education systems implemented within these three nations to educate students at various levels about water resources and identifies the challenges involved in each system. Finally, suggestions are made for future research to be conducted to obtain specific benefits for better management of water resources in East Africa.", keywords = "urbanisation, education, water resource management, unified research ideas, water demand, variation of water in Lake Victoria", author = "Brian Nalumenya and Matteo Rubinato and Michael Kennedy and Jade Catterson and Hilary Bakamwesiga and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)", year = "2023", month = jul, day = "27", doi = "10.3390/su151511597", language = "English", volume = "15", journal = "Sustainability", issn = "2071-1050", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "15", } . Sustainability.

Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales @article{e3476e9e8fa14275ac89af24e8e2f4d4, title = "Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales", abstract = "Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global wildfire regimes and geographical distributions of burnable area. As projected by the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6), in the near future, fire danger is likely to increase in many regions due to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are an important resource in understanding how fire danger will evolve in a changing climate but, to date, the development of fire risk scenarios has not fully accounted for systematic GCM errors and biases. This study presents a comprehensive global evaluation of the spatiotemporal representation of fire weather indicators from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System simulated by 16 GCMs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). While at the global scale, the ensemble mean is able to represent variability, magnitude and spatial extent of different fire weather indicators reasonably well when compared to the latest global fire reanalysis, there is considerable regional and seasonal dependence in the performance of each GCM. To support the GCM selection and application for impact studies, the evaluation results are combined to generate global and regional rankings of individual GCM performance. The findings highlight the value of GCM evaluation and selection in developing more reliable projections of future climate-driven fire danger, thereby enabling decision makers and forest managers to take targeted action and respond to future fire events.", author = "Carolina Gallo and Eden, \{Jonathan M.\} and Bastien Dieppois and Igor Drobyshev and Ful{\'e}, \{Peter Z.\} and Jes{\'u}s San-Miguel-Ayanz and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2022. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ", year = "2023", month = jun, day = "1", doi = "10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023", language = "English", volume = "16", pages = "3103–3122", journal = "Geoscientific Model Development", issn = "1991-959X", publisher = "Copernicus Publications", } . Geoscientific Model Development.

The April 2021 Cape Town wildfire @article{4fd3c9ecd9604c5286494045d5116cc9, title = "The April 2021 Cape Town wildfire: has anthropogenic climate change altered the likelihood of extreme fire weather?", abstract = "CMIP6 models suggest that extreme fire weather associated with the April 2021 Cape Town wildfire has become 90\% more likely in a warmer world. ", author = "Zhongwei Liu and Eden, \{Jonathan M.\} and Bastien Dieppois and Conradie, \{W. Stefaan\} and Matthew Blackett", note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. This document is the author{\textquoteright}s post-print version, incorporating any revisions agreed during the peer-review process. Some differences between the published version and this version may remain and you are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it. ", year = "2023", month = jan, day = "1", doi = "10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0204.1", language = "English", volume = "104", pages = "E298–E304", journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society", issn = "1520-0477", publisher = "American Meteorological Society", number = "1", } . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

The geologically recent areas as one key target for identifying active volcanism on Venus. @article{8a854d13eb3c4a67854d825eee373d14, title = "The geologically recent areas as one key target for identifying active volcanism on Venus.", abstract = "The recently selected NASA VERITAS and DAVINCI missions, the ESA EnVision, the Roscosmos Venera-D will open a new era in the exploration of Venus. One of the key targets of the future orbiting and in-situ investigations of Venus is the identification of volcanically active areas on the planet. The study of the areas characterized by recent or ongoing volcano-tectonic activity can inform us on how volcanism and tectonism are currently evolving on Venus. Following this key target, the manuscript by Brossier et al. (2022) (https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099765) extends the successful approach and methodology used by previous works to Ganis Chasma in Atla Regio. We comment here on the main results of the manuscript published by Brossier et al. (2022) (https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099765) and discuss the important implications of their work for the future orbiting and in-situ investigation of Venus. Their results add further lines of evidence indicating possibly recent volcanism on Venus.", keywords = "Solar System, Venus, Volcanism, Geology, Spectroscopy", author = "Piero D'Incecco and Justin Filiberto and \{L{\'o}pez Ruiz-Labranderas\}, Ivan and Eggers, \{Gabriel L.\} and \{Di Achille\}, Gaetano and Goro Komatsu and Gorinov, \{Dmitry A.\} and Carmelo Monaco and S. Aveni and Nicola Mari and Matthew Blackett and Marco Mastrogiuseppe and Marco Cardinale and \{El Yazidi\}, Mayssa", year = "2022", month = nov, day = "28", doi = "10.1002/essoar.10512680.1", language = "English", volume = "49", journal = "Geophysical Research Letters", issn = "0094-8276", publisher = "Wiley", number = "22", } . Geophysical Research Letters.

A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes @article{548a5a13cfda4408a2bd84b5c16ad2e2, title = "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change.", abstract = "In many parts of the world, wildfires have become more frequent and intense in recent decades, raising concerns about the extent to which climate change contributes to the nature of extreme fire weather occurrences. However, studies seeking to attribute fire weather extremes to climate change are hitherto relatively rare and show large disparities depending on the employed methodology. Here, an empirical-statistical method is implemented as part of a global probabilistic framework to attribute recent changes in the likelihood and magnitude of extreme fire weather. The results show that the likelihood of climate-related fire risk has increased by at least a factor of four in approximately 40\% of the world{\textquoteright}s fire-prone regions as a result of rising global temperature. In addition, a set of extreme fire weather events, occurring during a recent 5-year period (2014-2018) and identified as exceptional due to the extent to which they exceed previous maxima, are, in most cases, associated with an increased likelihood resulting from rising global temperature. The study{\textquoteright}s conclusions highlight important uncertainties and sensitivities associated with the selection of indices and metrics to represent extreme fire weather and their implications for the findings of attribution studies. Among the recommendations made for future efforts to attribute extreme fire weather events is the consideration of multiple fire weather indicators and communication of their sensitivities.", keywords = "Wildfire, Fire Weather, Climate Change, extreme value statistics", author = "Zhongwei Liu and Jonathan Eden and Bastien Dieppois and Matthew Blackett", note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. This document is the author{\textquoteright}s post-print version, incorporating any revisions agreed during the peer-review process. Some differences between the published version and this version may remain and you are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it. ", year = "2022", month = jul, day = "22", doi = "10.1007/s10584-022-03409-9", language = "English", volume = "173", journal = "Climatic Change", issn = "0165-0009", publisher = "Springer Science and Business Media B.V.", } . Climatic Change.

The first evaluation of the FY-3D/MERSI-2 sensor’s thermal infrared capabilities for deriving land surface temperature in volcanic regions: a case study of Mount Etna @article{77e41a9d9a3c4529a2aa3f2b9612b2e0, title = "The first evaluation of the FY-3D/MERSI-2 sensor{\textquoteright}s thermal infrared capabilities for deriving land surface temperature in volcanic regions: a case study of Mount Etna", abstract = "In November 2017, the China Meteorological Administration launched a new polar orbiting satellite in its Fengyun (FY) series: FY-3D. With its main purpose being the collection of meteorological data, FY-3D featured a comprehensive payload that is equally exploitable by various Earth Science disciplines. One of its sensors, the MEdium Resolution Spectral Imager-2 (MERSI-2), provides visible and infrared imagery at spatial resolutions of 250 – 1000 m. These characteristics make MERSI-2 suitable for volcanological remote sensing and make it comparable to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration{\textquoteright}s (NASA{\textquoteright}s) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors which themselves, have been widely used in volcanological applications. This paper evaluates the first clear and near-coincident MODIS – MERSI-2 images of Mount Etna (Italy) during an active volcanic phase in 2019 and in turn, provides the first assessment of MERSI-2{\textquoteright}s utility in observing volcanic activity in the Thermal InfraRed (TIR). To ensure the comparability of both scenes, data from each were converted to Land Surface Temperature (LST) and comparisons were encouraging, with an r2 of 0.92, a mean temperature discrepancy of 0.26 K and a root mean squared error of 0.75 K. Having ascertained comparability, we focussed on the absolute temperatures detected at the eruption site, with the highest being 317.3 K and 328.1 K for MODIS and MERSI-2, respectively. The 20 minute gap between the acquisitions is the most likely the cause of this temperature discrepancy, suggesting variations in lava effusion rates and activity were occurring at Mount Etna over such timescales. This study confirms the applicability of MERSI-2 for observing volcanic activity and emphasises the significance of TIR volcanic monitoring and the importance that additional spaceborne platforms might have in reducing temporal gaps between image acquisitions. Given its unique characteristics, future studies should investigate the applicability of MERSI-2 in more varied volcanic settings.", keywords = "Thermal Infrared, Volcanoes, MODIS, FY-3D, Etna", author = "Aveni, \{Simone Salvatore\} and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor \& Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.", year = "2022", month = may, day = "13", doi = "10.1080/01431161.2022.2068360", language = "English", volume = "43", pages = "2777--2792", journal = "International Journal of Remote Sensing", issn = "0143-1161", publisher = "Taylor and Francis", number = "8", } . International Journal of Remote Sensing.

S. Aveni, M. Blackett(2022). The first evaluation of the FY-3D/MERSI-2 sensor’s thermal infrared capabilities for deriving land surface temperature in volcanic regions: a case study of Mount Etna . International Journal of Remote Sensing. 43. (8). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 2777--2792. Informa {UK} Limited

The Impact of Tree Planting on Infiltration Dependent on Tree Proximity and Maturity at a Clay Site in Warwickshire, England @article{8b202deee93540918befb004eab0b401, title = "The Impact of Tree Planting on Infiltration Dependent on Tree Proximity and Maturity at a Clay Site in Warwickshire, England", abstract = "Urbanisation and the replacement of previously vegetated areas with impermeable surfaces reduces the lag times of overland flow and increases peak flows to receiving watercourses; the magnitude of this will increase as a result of climate change. Tree planting is gaining momentum as a potential method of natural flood management (NFM) due to its ability to break up soil and increase infiltration and water storage. In this study, a 2.2 km2 clay-textured area in Warwickshire, England, planted with trees every year from 2006 to 2012 was sampled to investigate how infiltration varies dependent on season and tree proximity and maturity. Infiltration data was collected from 10 and 200 cm away from selected sample trees from November 2019 to August 2021 using a Mini Disk infiltrometer (MDI). The results show that mean infiltration is higher at the 10 cm proximity compared with the 200 cm proximity by 75.87\% in winter and 25.19\% in summer. Further to this, mean 10 cm infiltration is 192\% higher in summer compared with winter, and mean 200 cm infiltration is 310\% higher in summer compared with winter. There is little evidence to suggest a relationship between infiltration and tree maturity at the study site.", keywords = "tree planting, tree proximity, infilteration, flood risk management, natural flood management (NFM)", author = "Nathaniel Revell and Craig Lashford and Matteo Rubinato and Matthew Blackett", note = "This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited ", year = "2022", month = mar, day = "12", doi = "10.3390/w14060892", language = "English", volume = "14", journal = "Water", issn = "2073-4441", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "6", } . Water.

The Potential to Address Disease Vectors in Favelas in Brazil Using Sustainable Drainage Systems @article{63dc7a708abc4bdd83499bae2611ae30, title = "The Potential to Address Disease Vectors in Favelas in Brazil Using Sustainable Drainage Systems: Zika, Drainage and Greywater Management", abstract = "Residents of informal settlements, the world over, suffer consequences due to the lack of drainage and greywater management, impacting human and environmental health. In Brazil, the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito in urban areas promotes infections of the Zika virus as well as companion viruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever. By using observation and interviews with the community, this paper shows how a simple sustainable drainage system approach could prevent the accumulation of on-street standing water, and thus reduce opportunities for the mosquito to breed and reduce infection rates. During the interview phase, it became apparent that underlying misinformation and misunderstandings prevail related to existing environmental conditions in favelas and the role of the mosquito in infecting residents. This inhibits recommendations made by professionals to reduce breeding opportunities for the disease vector. Whilst unrest is an issue in favelas, it is not the only issue preventing the human right to reliable, safe sanitation, including drainage. In {"}pacified{"} favelas which may be considered safe(r), the infrastructure is still poor and is not connected to the city-wide sanitation/treatment networks.", keywords = "Brazil, Favela, Greywater, Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS), Zika", author = "Charlesworth, \{Susanne M.\} and Kligerman, \{Debora C.\} and Matthew Blackett and Frank Warwick", note = "Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). ", year = "2022", month = mar, day = "1", doi = "10.3390/ijerph19052860", language = "English", volume = "19", journal = "International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health", issn = "1661-7827", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "5", } . International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

Were meteorological conditions related to the 2020 Siberia wildfires made more likely by anthropogenic climate change? @article{476dfce707ce474e961be088c8d27b2f, title = "Were meteorological conditions related to the 2020 Siberia wildfires made more likely by anthropogenic climate change?", abstract = "The meteorological conditions that coincided with extreme wildfires in Siberia during 2020 were up to 80\% more likely than a century ago as a result of global warming.", author = "Zhongwei Liu and Jonathan Eden and Bastien Dieppois and Igor Drobyshev and Carolina Gallo and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright}2022 American Meteorological Society For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy.", year = "2022", month = mar, day = "1", doi = "10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0168.1", language = "English", volume = "103", pages = "S44--S49", journal = "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society", issn = "1520-0477", publisher = "American Meteorological Society", number = "3", } . Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Underwater volcanoes: how ocean colour changes can signal an imminent eruption @misc{2ac40c5f6b944e49a4d527d5e0d38fab, title = "Underwater volcanoes: how ocean colour changes can signal an imminent eruption", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2022", month = jan, day = "21", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", publisher = "The Conversation", address = "United Kingdom", } .

Spatio-temporal surface temperature variations detected by satellite thermal infrared images at Merapi volcano, Indonesia @article{3d4cd37bd4644b2d9331d7a145d8d77b, title = "Spatio-temporal surface temperature variations detected by satellite thermal infrared images at Merapi volcano, Indonesia", abstract = "Merapi volcano is located in central Java and is the most active volcano in Indonesia. Many thousands live on the volcano's flanks which itself is 28 km (17 mi) north of Yogyakarta and its 2.4 million inhabitants. Given this population at risk, and a history of 73 recorded eruptions in the past 500 years, the hazards posed by Merapi are worthy of study. Merapi is monitored by networks of on-site seismology, deformation, and gas emission instruments and, like all volcanoes globally, is also routinely observed by satellite remote sensors. Here, we conduct a temporal and spatial time series analysis of land surface temperature (LST) observations of Merapi, as derived from MODIS (1 km spatial resolution), ASTER (90 m) and Landsat (30 m) thermal infrared imagery. The time series derived from MODIS is decomposed with the Seasonal Trend Decomposition using a Loess (STL) technique and this reveals thermal anomaly peaks caused by the eruptions and a subtle rising tendency in LST since the launch of MODIS in 2000. ASTER surface temperature time series is used for the cross validation of the MODIS LST time series and again, demonstrates thermal anomaly peaks and a longer term upward trend. For a detailed delineation of thermal features at Merapi, the 30 m pixel Landsat thermal imagery derived brightness temperature (BT) distribution during the period from 1988 to 2019 is presented. Finally, change detections (i.e., pixel-by-pixel comparison) of BT distribution from 1988 to 2019 are performed to inspect the spatial temperature variations of Merapi volcano. Positive thermal anomaly areas are identified and these correspond to local heat sources revealed by seismic imaging and resistivity tomography. In summary, the satellite remote sensing approach provides insights into thermal features at a higher spatial and temporal scale than has been conducted in the past and these observations complement ongoing ground-based measurements. The results of this study will feed into both an enhanced understanding of Merapi's thermally anomalous subsurface structures and facilitation of volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.", keywords = "ASTER, Land surface temperature (LST), Landsat, MODIS, Merapi volcano, Seasonal and Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL)", author = "Hai-Po Chan and Kostas Konstantinou and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} 2021, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Copyright {\textcopyright} and Moral Rights are retained by the author(s) and/ or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This item cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. ", year = "2021", month = dec, doi = "10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107405", language = "English", volume = "420", journal = "Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research", issn = "0377-0273", publisher = "Elsevier B.V.", } . Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.

Modelling the Hydrological Effects of Woodland Planting on Infiltration and Peak Discharge Using HEC-HMS @article{d86293f007514b07993e46dcf6da8454, title = "Modelling the Hydrological Effects of Woodland Planting on Infiltration and Peak Discharge Using HEC-HMS", abstract = "Woodland planting is gaining momentum as a potential method of natural flood management (NFM), due to its ability to break up soil and increase infiltration and water storage. In this study, a 2.2 km2 area in Warwickshire, England, planted with woodland every year from 2006 to 2012, was sampled using a Mini Disk infiltrometer (MDI). Infiltration measurements were taken from 10 and 200 cm away from the trees, from November 2019 to August 2021. Two individual hydrological models were built using the US Hydraulic Engineering Center Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS), to model the effects of infiltration change on peak flows from the site throughout the summer and winter. The models were calibrated and validated using empirical data; the Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) was used as an indicator of accuracy. Results from this study show that woodland planting reduced peak flow intensity compared to impermeable land cover by an average of 6\%, 2\%, and 1\% for 6-h, 24-h, and 96-h winter storms, respectively, and 48\%, 18\%, and 3\% for 6-h, 24-h, and 96-h summer storms, respectively. However, grassland simulations show the greatest reduction in peak flows, being 32\%, 21\%, and 10\%, lower than woodland for 6-, 24-, and 96-h winter storms, respectively, and 6\%, 3\%, and 0.5\% lower than woodland for 6-, 24-, and 96-h summer storms, respectively.", keywords = "Calibration, HEC-HMS, Hydrological modelling, Infiltration, Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency, Natural flood management, Validation", author = "Nathaniel Revell and Craig Lashford and Matthew Blackett and Matteo Rubinato", note = "This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.", year = "2021", month = nov, doi = "10.3390/w13213039", language = "English", volume = "13", journal = "Water", issn = "2073-4441", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "21", } . Water.

Matthew Blackett, Nathaniel Revell, Craig Lashford, Matteo Rubinato (2021). Modelling the Hydrological Effects of Woodland Planting on Infiltration and Peak Discharge Using HEC-HMS . Water.

Nathaniel Revell, Craig Lashford, Matteo Rubinato, Matthew Blackett (2021). Modelling the Hydrological Effects of Woodland Planting on Infiltration and Peak Discharge Using HEC-HMS . Water.

Modelling the Role of SuDS Management Trains in Minimising Flood Risk, Using MicroDrainage @article{312662fd68cf44be97c67ea41ddcd2c4, title = "Modelling the Role of SuDS Management Trains in Minimising Flood Risk, Using MicroDrainage", abstract = "This novel research models the impact that commonly used sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) have on runoff, and compare this to their land take. As land take is consistently cited as a key barrier to the wider implementation of SuDS, it is essential to understand the possible runoff reduction in relation to the area they take up. SuDS management trains consisting of different combinations of detention basins, green roofs, porous pavement and swales were designed in MicroDrainage. In this study, this is modelled against the 1\% Annual Exceedance Potential storm (over 30, 60, 90, 120, 360 and 720 min, under different infiltration scenarios), to determine the possible runoff reduction of each device. Detention basins were consistently the most effective regarding maximum runoff reduction for the land they take (0.419 L/s/m2), with porous pavement the second most effective, achieving 0.145 L/s/m2. As both green roofs (20.34\%) and porous pavement (6.76\%) account for land that would traditionally be impermeable, there is no net-loss of land compared to a traditional drainage approach. Consequently, although the modelled SuDS management train accounts for 34.86\% of the total site, just 7.76\% of the land is lost to SuDS, whilst managing flooding for all modelled rainfall and infiltration scenarios.", keywords = "Detention basins, Green roofs, MicroDrainage, Porous pavement, Runoff reduction, Swales", author = "Craig Lashford and Sue Charlesworth and Frank Warwick and Matthew Blackett", note = "This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited", year = "2020", month = sep, day = "13", doi = "10.3390/w12092559", language = "English", volume = "12", journal = "Water", issn = "2073-4441", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "9", } . Water.

Holocene coastal change at Luce Bay, South West Scotland @article{98048443646b45c397311b3709b0ce92, title = "Holocene coastal change at Luce Bay, South West Scotland", abstract = "Coastal change during the Mid- to Late Holocene at Luce Bay, South West Scotland, is examined using morphological, stratigraphic and biostratigraphical techniques supported by radiocarbon dating. Deglaciation left extensive sediments, providing a source for depositional coastal landforms. Glacio-isostatic uplift resulted in the registration of evidence for former relative sea levels (RSLs), which support the pattern of Holocene RSL change for the northern Irish Sea as determined by shoreline-based Gaussian trend surface models. The rate of RSL rise was rapid from before ca. 8600 to ca. 7800 cal a bp, but then slowed, changing by <3 m over the next 3000 years, a pattern reflected in the convergence of shorelines predicted in the models. By ca. 4400 cal a bp RSL was falling towards present levels. As these changes were taking place, coastal barriers developed and dunes formed across them. In the West of the Bay, a lagoon forming to landward of the barriers and dunes acted as a sediment sink for dune sand. Changes in the coastal landscape influenced the occupation of the area by early human societies. This study illustrates the value of combining an understanding of process geomorphology, RSL and archaeology in studies of coastal change.", keywords = "Holocene, archaeology, coastal change, microfossils, radiocarbon", author = "David Smith and Richard Tipping and Jason Jordan and Matthew Blackett", note = "This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.", year = "2020", month = aug, day = "1", doi = "10.1002/jqs.3227", language = "English", volume = "35", pages = "743--759", journal = "Journal of Quaternary Science", issn = "0267-8179", publisher = "Wiley", number = "6", } . Journal of Quaternary Science.

David E. Smith, Richard M. Tipping, Jason T. Jordan, Mathew Blackett (2020). Holocene coastal change at Luce Bay, South West Scotland . Journal of Quaternary Science.

Grounded aircraft could make weather forecasts less reliable @misc{136c921bb76746fcb7696fbd05654d74, title = "Grounded aircraft could make weather forecasts less reliable", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2020", month = may, day = "13", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

The co-incidence of earthquakes and volcanoes @article{091d3c481afe4907be32dc49198b9c85, title = "The co-incidence of earthquakes and volcanoes: assessing global volcanic radiant flux responses to earthquakes in the 21st century", abstract = "The temporal and spatial co-incidence of earthquakes and volcanoes has been documented for many years with recent reports suggesting that instances of earthquake-induced volcanic activity often occur following high magnitude seismic events. Using data extracted from the MODVOLC algorithm, this paper compares global volcanic radiant fluxes with large magnitude earthquakes to investigate temporal co-incidences between earthquakes and volcanic activity and to identify the thermal response of volcanoes to 14 large magnitude (M w ≥ 8.0) earthquakes that occurred between 2001 and 2011. Results indicate that, on the basis of statistical testing, 3 events were associated with a statistically significant increase in global volcanic radiant flux by more than half and, 2 events experienced a statistically significant decrease in global volcanic activity. In the remaining 9 cases, global volcanic activity remained unchanged. These findings indicate that (1) at a global scale, there are instances of a temporally co-incident relationship between large magnitude earthquakes and global volcanic radiant flux, (2) modified thermal activity following an earthquake is short-lived, often reflected in changes in the number of thermally active volcanoes and/or global volcanic radiant flux and, (3) under favourable conditions, volcanoes with long repose periods may be more susceptible to triggering. ", keywords = "Earthquake-volcano interactions, Remote sensing, Thermal anomalies", author = "Charley Hill-Butler and Matthew Blackett and Robert Wright and Nigel Trodd", note = "NOTICE: this is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 393, (2020) DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106770 {\textcopyright} 2020, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ ", year = "2020", month = mar, day = "1", doi = "10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106770", language = "English", volume = "393", journal = "Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research", issn = "0377-0273", publisher = "Elsevier B.V.", } . Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.

Matthew Blackett, Hai-Po Chan, Chung-Pai Chang, Tang-Huang Lin, Hao Kuo-Chen, Andrew Tien-Shun Lin(2020). The potential of satellite remote sensing for monitoring the onset of volcanic activity on Taipei’s doorstep . International Journal of Remote Sensing. 41. (4). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 1372--1388. Taylor and Francis

Can one earthquake cause a cascade of more @misc{0f1e19d61c154831ae5f9dbf48d877a6, title = "Can one earthquake cause a cascade of more", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2019", month = dec, day = "2", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

(2019). The potential of satellite remote sensing for monitoring the onset of volcanic activity on Taipei’s doorstep . International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Christopher Ifechukwude Chima, Nigel Trodd, Mathew Blackett(2017). Assessment of Nigeriasat-1 satellite data for urban land use / land cover analysis using Object Based Image Analysis in Abuja, Nigeria . Geocarto International. Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 1--36. Informa {UK} Limited

Matthew Blackett, Christopher Chima, Nigel Trodd(2017). Assessment of Nigeriasat-1 satellite data for urban land use / land cover analysis using Object Based Image Analysis in Abuja, Nigeria . Journal Geocarto International. (in press). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString (in press). Taylor and Francis

Matthew Blackett(2017). An Overview of Infrared Remote Sensing of Volcanic Activity . Journal of Imaging. 3. (2). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 13. {MDPI} {AG}

An Overview of Infrared Remote Sensing of Volcanic Activity @article{46b1d89517f74ee6886f04d2b5346ec2, title = "An Overview of Infrared Remote Sensing of Volcanic Activity", abstract = "Volcanic activity consists of the transfer of heat from the interior of the Earth to the surface. The characteristics of the heat emitted relate directly to the geological processes underway and can be observed from space, using the thermal sensors present on many Earth-orbiting satellites. For over 50 years, scientists have utilised such sensors and are now able to determine the sort of volcanic activity being displayed without hazardous and costly field expeditions. This review will describe the theoretical basis of the discipline and then discuss the sensors available and the history of their use. Challenges and opportunities for future developments are then discussed. ", keywords = " infrared remote sensing, volcanoes, Earth observation, satellites", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2017", month = apr, day = "12", doi = "10.3390/jimaging3020013", language = "English", volume = "3", journal = "Journal of Imaging", issn = "2313-433X", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "2", } . Journal of Imaging.

The world’s five deadliest volcanoes … and why they’re so dangerous? @misc{07abadd085d34f5ba850faaf5ac6e883, title = "The world{\textquoteright}s five deadliest volcanoes … and why they{\textquoteright}re so dangerous?", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2017", month = apr, day = "10", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

(2017). An Overview of Infrared Remote Sensing of Volcanic Activity . Journal of Imaging.

Matthew Blackett, Sue Charlesworth, K Winter, Andrew Adam-Bradford, Margaret Mezue, Mitchell McTough, Frank Warwick(2017). Sustainable drainage in challenging environments . New Water Policy and Practice. 4. (1). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 31--41. Policy Studies Organization

The San Andreas fault is about to crack – here’s what will happen when it does @misc{c0dbd38d1aed491ab932b9337b9a1ea9, title = "The San Andreas fault is about to crack – here{\textquoteright}s what will happen when it does", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2016", month = may, day = "11", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

Is climate change ruining skiing in the Alps? @misc{9f1627b6383d4a0f850b2f0c0e67003b, title = "Is climate change ruining skiing in the Alps?", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2016", month = jan, day = "11", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

An initial comparison of the thermal anomaly detection products of MODIS and VIIRS in their observation of Indonesian volcanic activity @article{acc6606aea68400a8cb6949fe9545c5e, title = "An initial comparison of the thermal anomaly detection products of MODIS and VIIRS in their observation of Indonesian volcanic activity", abstract = "The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite was launched in 2011. On-board this satellite is the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) with thermal infrared detection capabilities similar to those of the earlier Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Observation System. Fire detection products have been developed using the thermal infrared data for both VIIRS and MODIS and, although having the observation of fire as their main objective, such products are also sensitive to the radiant emissions of active volcanic surfaces, but a comparison of their capabilities in this regard remains outstanding. Here, this comparison is conducted, with a focus on the volcanoes of Indonesia, and findings are initially promising, suggesting that the VIIRS fire detection capability is an improvement over that of its predecessor. For example, between 3 April 2012 and 14 July 2014, volcanic activity was detected on 519 days by the VIIRS product, as compared with 308 days for the MODIS-Aqua product (MYD14). Causes of this apparent enhanced sensitivity are explored and, with the examination of additional data from the MODIS-Terra product and the MODVOLC system, are shown to be the combined influence of spatial resolution, data processing steps, imaging scan width and the fire product algorithm used. As greater quantities of data become available, a more comprehensive comparison of these observations will be possible and will be undertaken at a global scale. ", keywords = "VIIRS, MODIS, FRP, Volcanoes, Thermal remote sensing, MODVOLC, Indonesia", author = "Matthew Blackett", note = "NOTICE: this is the author{\textquoteright}s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Remote Sensing of Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Remote Sensing of Environment, [VOL 171, (2015)] DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2015.10.002 {\textcopyright} 2015, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/", year = "2015", month = dec, day = "15", doi = "10.1016/j.rse.2015.10.002", language = "English", volume = "171", pages = "75--82", journal = "Remote Sensing of Environment", issn = "0034-4257", publisher = "Elsevier", } . Remote Sensing of Environment.

Matthew Blackett(2015). An initial comparison of the thermal anomaly detection products of MODIS and VIIRS in their observation of Indonesian volcanic activity . Remote Sensing of Environment. 171. Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 75--82. Elsevier {BV}

Earthquakes, superstorms … and other little-known perils of climate change @misc{b2bea39048904573b85bb0c0ab753c4f, title = "Earthquakes, superstorms … and other little-known perils of climate change", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2015", month = nov, day = "2", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

Are we prepared for the next big Mediterranean tsunami? @misc{8debc1bc960d4f01b05ee241fa80bd8a, title = "Are we prepared for the next big Mediterranean tsunami?", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2015", month = aug, day = "27", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

Five global catastrophes that could happen tomorrow @misc{be66893ff42b49d59ee9b29b3364d429, title = "Five global catastrophes that could happen tomorrow", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2015", month = aug, day = "27", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

Here’s why the Greenwich Prime Meridian is actually in the wrong place @misc{6e3becac40f04784bee32eb6a03f7531, title = "Here{\textquoteright}s why the Greenwich Prime Meridian is actually in the wrong place", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2015", month = aug, day = "20", language = "English", journal = "The Conversation", } .

Some observations regarding the thermal flux from Earth's erupting volcanoes for the period of 2000 to 2014 @article{0c3f0c1365ab4183814a40ea2ec80c71, title = "Some observations regarding the thermal flux from Earth's erupting volcanoes for the period of 2000 to 2014", abstract = "We present satellite measurements of the thermal flux observed from 95 active volcanoes, based on observations made daily over the past 15 years by NASA's Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors. Excursions from an apparent baseline level of thermal emission are attributable to episodic lava-flow-forming eruptions. Highest average intensity was associated with the July 2001 eruption of Etna, Italy, which radiated an average of 2.5 × 109 W over 23 days. However, recent fissure eruptions in the Afar Rift have attained higher average intensities of 2.4–4.4 × 109 W, albeit for days, not weeks. The largest magnitude eruption was the ongoing eruption of Bardarbunga, Iceland, which radiated 2.6 × 1016 J. Kīlauea, Hawai'i, has radiated the most energy since 2000, although the lava lake at Nyiragongo, Democratic Republic of Congo, comes a close second. Time series analysis reveals evidence for periodicity in radiant flux at some volcanoes but not at others. ", keywords = "remote sensing, volcanoes", author = "Robert Wright and Matthew Blackett and Charley Hill-Butler", note = "{\textcopyright} 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.", year = "2015", month = jan, day = "28", doi = "10.1002/2014GL061997", language = "English", volume = "42", pages = "282--289", journal = "Geophysical Research Letters", issn = "0094-8276", publisher = "Wiley", number = "2", } . Geophysical Research Letters.

Physical activity patterns of ethnic children from low socio-economic environments within the UK @article{431dbda2afc64d8d9487348723cf98d5, title = "Physical activity patterns of ethnic children from low socio-economic environments within the UK", abstract = "Many children fail to meet physical activity (PA) guidelines for health benefits. PA behaviours are complex and depend on numerous interrelated factors. The study aims to develop current understanding of how children from low Socio-economic environments within the UK use their surrounding built environments for PA by using advanced technology. The environment was assessed in 96 school children (7–9 years) using global positioning system (GPS) monitoring (Garmin Forerunner, 305). In a subsample of 46 children, the environment and PA were assessed using an integrated GPS and heart rate monitor. The percentage of time spent indoor, outdoor, in green and non-green environments along with time spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) in indoor and outdoor environments were assessed. A 2-by-2 repeated measures analysis of covariance, controlling for body mass index, BF\%, assessed the environmental differences. The findings show that 42\% of children from deprived wards of Coventry fail to meet PA guidelines, of which 43\% was accumulated during school. Children engaged in more MVPA outdoor than indoor environments (P <0.01) and a greater amount of time was spent in non-green environments (P <0.01). Increased time outdoors was negatively associated with BF\%. In conclusion, outdoor environments are important for health-enhancing PA and reducing fatness in deprived and ethnic children. Publisher statement: {"}This is an Author's Original Manuscript of an article published by Taylor \& Francis Group in Journal of Sports Sciences on 7/7/2014, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/ DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2014.934706”", keywords = "deprivation, South Asian, fatness, youth", author = "Eyre, \{Emma Lisa Jane\} and Duncan, \{Michael J.\} and Birch, \{Samantha Louise\} and Valerie Cox and Matthew Blackett", note = "This article has been published online ahead of print. {"}This is an Author's Original Manuscript of an article published by Taylor \& Francis Group in Journal of Sports Sciences on 7/7/2014, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/ DOI: 10.1080/02640414.2014.934706”", year = "2015", doi = "10.1080/02640414.2014.934706", language = "English", volume = "33", pages = "232--242", journal = "Journal of Sports Sciences", issn = "0264-0414", publisher = "Routledge", number = "3", } . Journal of Sports Sciences.

Wright, R., Blackett, M., Hill-Butler, C.(2015). Some observations regarding the thermal flux from Earth's erupting volcanoes for the period of 2000 to 2014 . Geophysical Research Letters. 42. (2). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 282-289.

Eyre, E.L.J., Duncan, M.J., Birch, S.L., Cox, V., Blackett, M.(2015). Physical activity patterns of ethnic children from low socio-economic environments within the UK . Journal of Sports Sciences. 33. (3). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 232-242.

Early Analysis of Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor Imagery of Volcanic Activity @article{1ba537598d1a4e8f8620a2f47b363ce9, title = "Early Analysis of Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor Imagery of Volcanic Activity", abstract = "The Landsat-8 satellite of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission was launched by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in April 2013. Just weeks after it entered active service, its sensors observed activity at Paluweh Volcano, Indonesia. Given that the image acquired was in the daytime, its shortwave infrared observations were contaminated with reflected solar radiation; however, those of the satellite{\textquoteright}s Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) show thermal emission from the volcano{\textquoteright}s summit and flanks. These emissions detected in sensor{\textquoteright}s band 10 (10.60–11.19 μm) have here been quantified in terms of radiant power, to confirm reports of the actual volcanic processes operating at the time of image acquisition, and to form an initial assessment of the TIRS in its volcanic observation capabilities. Data from band 11 have been neglected as its data have been shown to be unreliable at the time of writing. At the instant of image acquisition, the thermal emission of the volcano was found to be 345 MW. This value is shown to be on the same order of magnitude as similarly timed NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer thermal observations. Given its unique characteristics, the TIRS shows much potential for providing useful, detailed and accurate volcanic observations in the future.", keywords = "thermal remote sensing, volcanoes, Landsat, LCDM, Paluweh", author = "Matthew Blackett", note = "This article has been released under the post-2008 Creative Commons Attribution License.", year = "2014", month = mar, doi = "10.3390/rs6032282", language = "English", volume = "6", pages = "2282--2295", journal = "Remote Sensing", issn = "2072-4292", publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute", number = "3", } . Remote Sensing.

Matthew Blackett, Craig Lashford, Sue M. Charlesworth, Frank Warwick(2014). Deconstructing the sustainable drainage management train in terms of water quantity - preliminary results for coventry, UK . Clean - Soil, Air, Water. 42. (2). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 187–192. Wiley

Lashford, C., Charlesworth, S., Warwick, F., Blackett, M.(2014). Deconstructing the sustainable drainage management train in terms of water quantity - preliminary results for coventry, UK . Clean - Soil, Air, Water. 42. (2). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 187-192.

Blackett, M.(2014). Early analysis of landsat-8 thermal infrared sensor imagery of volcanic activity . Remote Sensing. 6. (3). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 2282-2295.

Matthew Blackett, James Bennett, A.R. Palmer(2012). Range degradation and land tenure change: insights from a ‘released’ communal area of Eastern Cape province, South Africa . Land Degradation and Development. 23. (6). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 557--568. Wiley

Bennett, J.E., Palmer, A.R., Blackett, M.A.(2012). Range degradation and land tenure change: Insights from a 'released' communal area of eastern cape province, south africa . Land Degradation and Development. 23. (6). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 557-568.

Evaluation of SWIR-based methods for quantifying active volcano radiant emissions using NASA EOS-ASTER data @article{df0df9400d2c4a9e9e87c1d869e7ef6d, title = "Evaluation of SWIR-based methods for quantifying active volcano radiant emissions using NASA EOS-ASTER data", abstract = "Analysis of thermally emissive volcanic features using satellite infrared remote sensing has been conducted over recent decades, primarily using shortwave and thermal infrared (SWIR; TIR) radiance data. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), mounted on the Earth Observation System (EOS) Terra satellite, offers an advance on earlier instruments, having more bands covering the SWIR atmospheric window and offering a wider dynamic range. This paper compares methods used to analyse ASTER SWIR imagery of active volcanoes, using both simulated cases and actual ASTER imagery of Lascar Volcano, and focuses on radiative power estimates. Those based on the Oppenheimer approach are found to be most reliable for simulated surfaces, with the Lombardo and Buongiorno and Dozier retrievals having larger uncertainties in most cases. However, the Dozier Method results in the highest proportion of successful retrievals, the reliability of which is influenced by factors including band combination, gain setting and saturation. The radiative power metric is shown as a more reliable measure than sub-pixel characterisations of hotspot temperature and area, as retrieved by these methods. We conclude with an assessment of ASTER in terms of its utility for providing quantitative observations of active volcanic surfaces. ", keywords = "shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, volcano, radiative power", author = "Matthew Blackett and M.J. Wooster", note = "This is an electronic version of an article published in Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2(1), 51-78. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19475705.2010.541501", year = "2011", month = mar, doi = "10.1080/19475705.2010.541501", language = "English", volume = "2", pages = "51--78", journal = "Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk", issn = "1947-5713", publisher = "Taylor and Francis", number = "1", } . Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison @article{52725ee060684bc7949f8067433d1381, title = "Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison", abstract = "Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.", keywords = "urban climate, energy balance, surface atmosphere exchanges, land surface modelling, sustainable cities, radiation, turbulent heat fluxes, evaporation", author = "C.S.B. Grimmond and Matthew Blackett and M.J. Best and J.J. Baik and S.E. Belcher and J. Beringer and S.I. Bohnenstengel and I. Calmet and F. Chen and A. Coutts and A. Dandou and K. Fortuniak and M.L. Gouvea and R. Hamdi and M. Hendry and M. Kanda and T. Kawai and Y. Kawamoto and H. Kondo and Krayenhoff, \{E. S.\} and S.-H. Lee and T. Loridan and A. Martilli and V. Masson and S. Miao and K. Oleson and R. Ooka and G. Pigeon and A. Porson and Y.-H. Ryu and F. Salamanca and G.J. Steeneveld and M. Tombrou and Voogt, \{J. A.\} and Young, \{D. T.\} and N. Zhang", note = "The full text of this item is not available from the repository.", year = "2011", month = feb, doi = "10.1002/joc.2227", language = "English", volume = "31", pages = "244--272", journal = "International Journal of Climatology", issn = "0899-8418", publisher = "Wiley", number = "2", } . International Journal of Climatology.

Blackett, M., Wooster, M.J.(2011). Evaluation of SWIR-based methods for quantifying active volcano radiant emissions using NASA EOS-ASTER data . Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk. 2. (1). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 51-78.

Blackett, M., Wooster, M.J., Malamud, B.D.(2011). Exploring land surface temperature earthquake precursors: A focus on the Gujarat (India) earthquake of 2001 . Geophysical Research Letters. 38. (15).

Matthew Blackett, M. Wooster, B. Malamud(2011). Exploring land surface temperature earthquake precursors: A focus on the Gujarat (India) earthquake of 2001 . Geophysical Research Letters. 38. (L15303). Wiley

Grimmond, C.S.B., Blackett, M., Best, M.J., Baik, J.-J., Belcher, S.E., Beringer, J., Bohnenstengel, S.I., Calmet, I., Chen, F., Coutts, A., et al.(2011). Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison . International Journal of Climatology. 31. (2). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 244-272.

Blackett, M., Wooster, M.J., Malamud, B.D.(2011). Erratum: Exploring land surface temperature earthquake precursors: A focus on the Gujarat (India) earthquake of 2001 (Geophysical Research Letters (2011) 38 (L15303) DOI:10.1029/2011GL048282) . Geophysical Research Letters. 38. (18).

The international urban energy balance models comparison project: first results from phase 1 @article{76f393f8991945bfb315dc6584215e47, title = "The international urban energy balance models comparison project: first results from phase 1", abstract = "A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no comparison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling approaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux.", keywords = "energy budget, model comparison, urban meteorology", author = "C.S.B. Grimmond and Matthew Blackett and M.J. Best and J. Barlow and J.J. Baik and S.E. Belcher and S.I. Bohnenstengel and I. Calmet and F. Chen and A. Dandou and K. Fortuniak and Gouvea, \{M. L.\} and R. Hamdi and M Hendry and T. Kawai and Y. Kawamoto and H. Kondo and Krayenhoff, \{E. S.\} and S-H. Lee and T. Loridan and A. Martilli and V. Masson and S. Miao and K. Oleson and G. Pigeon and A. Porson and Y-H. Ryu and F. Salamanca and L. Shashua-Bar and G-J. Steeneveld and M. Tombrou and J. Voogt and D. Young and N. Zhangt", note = "The full text of this item is not available from the repository.", year = "2010", month = jun, doi = "10.1175/2010JAMC2354.1", language = "English", volume = "49", pages = "1268–1292", journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology", issn = "1558-8432", publisher = "American Meteorological Society", number = "6", } . Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Grimmond, C.S.B., Blackett, M., Best, M.J., Barlow, J., Baik, J.-J., Belcher, S.E., Bohnenstengel, S.I., Calmet, I., Chen, F., Dandou, A., et al.(2010). The international urban energy balance models comparison project: First results from phase 1 . Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 49. (6). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 1268-1292.

Fisher, J.B., Nawaz, R., Fauzi, R., Nawaz, F., Said Md. Sadek, E.S., Abd. Latif, Z., Blackett, M.(2008). Balancing water, religion and tourism on Redang Island, Malaysia . Environmental Research Letters. 3. (2).

Blackett, M.(2007). Infrared radiance of Mount Etna, Sicily . Journal of Maps. 3. (SUPP 1). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 23-31.

CONFERENCE OUTPUT

Spatiotemporal analysis and projections of wildfire risk across Pakistan under different climate change scenarios @conference{8524b739ed504af58760ee38a5e20aa9, title = "Spatiotemporal analysis and projections of wildfire risk across Pakistan under different climate change scenarios", abstract = "Wildfires are becoming more intense and frequent, with record-breaking fire seasons witnessed across the world in recent years. Amid rising global temperatures, the challenge to understand, communicate and ultimately reduce wildfire risk is critical. A recent report published by the United Nations Environment Programme noted a particular increase in fire prevalence across regions that were not previously considered fire-prone, including the Indian subcontinent. In Pakistan, wildfire has gradually emerged as a significant environmental and societal threat. However, it is unclear how such threats will evolve under climate change, and to what extent Pakistan{\textquoteright}s ongoing afforestation projects, such as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami, take changes in risk into account. Here, we explore how meteorological conditions conducive to wildfire are likely to respond to a changing climate throughout Pakistan. Following an initial spatiotemporal analysis of wildfire occurrence based on satellite-derived data between 2001 and 2020, we identity hotspots of fire activity across the forested regions of the Baluchistan, Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces. Using the fire weather index (FWI) derived from the simulations of 14 global climate model ensembles from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we then quantify changes in fire danger throughout the 21st century under four climate change scenarios defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We show that the magnitude of seasonal mean FWI is projected to increase by as much as 10\% by the end of the century under the highest emissions scenario, with up to 20 additional days of extreme fire weather projected per year. Our conclusions advise on how forest management strategies and afforestation projects across Pakistan should account for potential changes in wildfire risk associated with a changing climate. We introduce a prototype online portal as a mechanism to disseminate results and communicate future risk to a range of potential stakeholders. Further work will focus on the resilience of wildfire forecasting and early warning systems in a changing climate. ", author = "Zarmina Zahoor and Jonathan Eden and Matthew Blackett and Yung-Fang Chen", year = "2024", month = apr, doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu24-614", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2024 ; Conference date: 14-04-2024 Through 19-04-2024", url = "https://www.egu24.eu/", } . EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14/04/24.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev(2022). Identifying sensitivities and uncertainties in the attribution of global fire weather extremes using CMIP6 ensembles . EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23/05/22.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Carolina Gallo(2022). Attribution of extreme 'fire weather' to anthropogenic climate change: the case of the 2020 Siberia wildfires . MeteoXchange ECS Conference, 17/03/22.

Groundwater Level Variations in relation to Volcanic and Seismic Events. New Insights on Mt. Etna, Southern Italy. @conference{68ca5899fa6a4819b4390528b8174a54, title = "Groundwater Level Variations in relation to Volcanic and Seismic Events. New Insights on Mt. Etna, Southern Italy.", abstract = "In this preliminary study, the response of Etnean groundwater levels (GWL) to seismic and volcanic events between 2003 and 2007 was investigated. This period was characterised by frequent volcanic and seismic activity. Groundwater timeseries were filtered for the effect of meteoric contribution by employing the Cumulative Rainfall Departure (CRD) approach; these were then examined for correlations with volcanic and/or seismic events. Noteworthy variations in GWLs were observed in the proximity of eruptive episodes. These seemed to be consistent with the variation of other parameters such as ground deformation and SO2 emissions previously investigated by other authors, and with the GWL fluctuations preceding the 2001–2002 seismic-volcanic crisis, detected by the Geochemical Monitoring System (GMS–2). Additionally, the variations observed before the phreatomagmatic explosion of January 12th, 2006, were the most evident among the whole examined period. With regard to this latter event, the GWL of wells to the S/SE sector of the volcano displayed a sudden and quasi-simultaneous lowering. These fluctuations commenced in November 2005 and were coincident with a moderate increase in the amplitude of volcanic tremor and mild inflation of the summit of the volcano, as recorded at permanent GPS stations. Less marked results have been obtained in relation to seismic events and it has not been viable to identify recurrent patterns of variation, mainly due to a low resolution of the available data. This work highlights how GWL variations might suggest, from days to months in advance, alterations to the geodynamic equilibrium of the Etnean region, providing evidence of the importance of groundwater monitoring and providing suggestions for future research. We envisage that this work will encourage the implementation of an efficient quantitative groundwater monitoring network which could reveal crucial information in the search for precursor signals.", keywords = "Groundwater, Volcanic Eruption, Earthquakes", author = "Aveni, \{Simone Salvatore\} and Matthew Blackett", year = "2021", month = apr, day = "8", doi = "10.13127/misc/59", language = "English", pages = "76", note = "International Conference for Early-career Researchers {\textquoteleft}A. Rittmann{\textquoteright} ; Conference date: 06-04-2021 Through 09-04-2021", } . International Conference for Early-career Researchers ‘A. Rittmann’, 6/04/21.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2021). Development of an Empirical- Statistical Framework for Attributing Fire Weather Extremes to Anthropogenic Climate Change . RMetS Student and Early Career Scientists Conference 2021, 28/06/21.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2021). Development of a common definition approach for multi-event attribution of fire weather extremes . EGU General Assembly 2021, 19/04/21.

Causative Relationships Between Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity @conference{01b60d97f23b473c96054c4c8ed534f8, title = "Causative Relationships Between Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity", author = "Charley Hill-Butler and Matthew Blackett and Robert Wright", year = "2015", month = apr, day = "16", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2015 ; Conference date: 12-04-2015 Through 17-04-2015", url = "https://www.egu2015.eu/", } . EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 12/04/15.

Matthew Blackett, Charley Hill-Butler, Nigel Trodd(2014). Earthquake-Volcano Interactions: A Global Assessment . VMSG Annual Meeting 2014, United Kingdom, 6/01/14.

Matthew Blackett, Charley Hill-Butler(2014). Assessment of the Relationship Between Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity: A Remote Sensing Approach . RSPSoc Wavelength Conference, United Kingdom, 1/04/14.

CONFERENCE POSTER

High-resolution fire weather projections for effective forest management and restoration across the Mediterranean region @conference{d4cb49de1ff844dc8f359f78761fae71, title = "High-resolution fire weather projections for effective forest management and restoration across the Mediterranean region: Abstract EGU24-18220", abstract = "The Mediterranean region has historically been prone to wildfire activity. However, many Mediterranean countries have been particularly impacted in recent years by an increase in fire intensity and fire season length, with hundreds of thousands of hectares burned both north and south of the basin. Larger and more frequent fires are anticipated across the Mediterranean region in the future, a key driver of which is the projected increase in so-called fire weather (the meteorological conditions conducive to fire ignition and spread) associated with a warming world. In view of the loss or degradation of forest areas due to wildfires, and in the context of the ongoing UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030), Mediterranean countries are actively engaging in post-fire restoration actions. Developing new insights into the evolution of fire weather across Mediterranean ecosystems is crucial for effective forest management and restoration planning. For the Mediterranean, fire weather projections under climate change have typically been extrapolated from global-scale studies or otherwise focused predominantly on Southern European countries. By contrast, far less attention has been given to countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Here, we generate high-resolution fire weather projections for the entire Mediterranean region, using the latest generation of global climate models. We calculate the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) following a multivariate bias correction and downscaling of the FWI{\textquoteright}s underpinning meteorological variables (namely, maximum daily temperature, minimum daily relative humidity, mean daily wind speed and daily precipitation). Results show changes in the magnitude of FWI seasonal means, maxima and fire season length in different scenarios and areas of the Mediterranean region where fire danger is projected to increase in the forthcoming decades. We discuss potential implications for future land management and restoration activities, as current preventive and restorative strategies should consider these future scenarios to ensure their success. The high-resolution fire weather projections generated here will help to better target areas of intervention and types of measures to be implemented.", author = "Carolina Gallo and Jonathan Eden and Bastien Dieppois and Peter Ful{\'e} and Jes{\'u}s San-Miguel-Ayanz and Valentina Bacciu and Christophe Besacier and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. CC-BY; EGU General Assembly 2024 ; Conference date: 14-04-2024 Through 19-04-2024", year = "2024", month = mar, day = "11", doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18220", language = "English", url = "https://www.egu24.eu/", } . EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14/04/24.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Stefaan Conradie, Carolina Gallo(2023). Collective attribution and future risk assessment of recent high-impact wildfire events . EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23/04/23.

Matthew Blackett, Carolina Gallo, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Ful&#233;, Jes&#250;s San-Miguel-Ayanz(2023). A model weighting scheme for fire weather projections simulated by CMIP6 climate model ensembles - Abstract EGU23-15341 . EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23/04/23.

Multi-model attribution of extremes in fire weather intensity and duration using CMIP6 ensembles @conference{49ff801eb52f435a933e7e8f44974c9b, title = "Multi-model attribution of extremes in fire weather intensity and duration using CMIP6 ensembles", author = "Zhongwei Liu and Jonathan Eden and Bastien Dieppois and Matthew Blackett", note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. CC BY; 20^th Swiss climate summer school 2022 (themed as 'Extreme weather and climate: from atmospheric processes to impacts on ecosystems and society') <br/> ; Conference date: 28-08-2022 Through 02-09-2022", year = "2022", month = may, language = "English", } . 20^th Swiss climate summer school 2022 (themed as 'Extreme weather and climate: from atmospheric processes to impacts on ecosystems and society') <br/>, Grindelwald, Switzerland, 28/08/22.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2022). Climate change and global wildfire activity: developing a framework for event attribution and future risk assessment . Doctoral Capability and Development Conference (DCAD 2022), Coventry, United Kingdom, 26/04/22.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2022). Multi-model attribution of extremes in fire weather intensity and duration using CMIP6 ensembles . Royal Meteorological Society Student and Early Career Scientists Conference 2022, Manchester, United Kingdom, 6/07/22.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2020). How is human-induced climate change altering extreme wildfire events? . Royal Meteorological Society Student and Early Career Scientists Conference 2020, 29/06/20.

Matthew Blackett, Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan Eden, Bastien Dieppois(2020). Towards multi-method and multi-scale attribution of global wildfire danger . EGU General Assembly 2020, 4/05/20.

Matthew Blackett(2015). How do the fire detection products of MODIS and VIIRS compare in their observation of Indonesian volcanic activity? . EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 12/04/15.

Matthew Blackett, Charley Hill-Butler, Robert Wright(2014). Some observations regarding the thermal flux from Earth’s erupting volcanoes for the period 2000 to 2014 . Annual Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014, United States, 15/12/14.

Matthew Blackett(2014). Comparison of the volcanic activity detection capabilities of the MODIS and VIIRS Fire Detection Products - a focus on Indonesia . Geological Remote Sensing Group AGM 2014, Geological Society, 15/12/14.

Geographical information as a decision support tool for sustainable drainage at the city scale @conference{1639ab5aa70b44bc8c6d516ecd61c752, title = "Geographical information as a decision support tool for sustainable drainage at the city scale", author = "Frank Warwick and Sue Charlesworth and Matthew Blackett", year = "2013", month = jun, day = "27", language = "English", note = "8th International Conference NOVATECH : Planning \&amp; technologies for sustainable urban water management, NOVATECH 2013 ; Conference date: 23-06-2013 Through 27-06-2013", } . 8th International Conference NOVATECH, Lyon, France, 23/06/13.

Patterns in thermal emissions from the volcanoes of the Aleutian Islands @conference{325519c3d4f9488babdf1b4a1f80968f, title = "Patterns in thermal emissions from the volcanoes of the Aleutian Islands", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2012", month = dec, language = "English", note = "American Geophysical Union AGM 2012 ; Conference date: 10-12-2012", } . American Geophysical Union AGM 2012, 10/12/12.

MODIS Land Surface Temperature Observations associated with the Gujarat Earthquake of 2001: A Statistical Analysis @conference{f2d070e962a64559af6161f1bd224036, title = "MODIS Land Surface Temperature Observations associated with the Gujarat Earthquake of 2001: A Statistical Analysis", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2009", month = apr, day = "24", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2009 ; Conference date: 19-04-2009 Through 24-04-2009", } . EGU General Assembly 2009, Vienna, Austria, 19/04/09.

First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity @conference{26f5e1b928bb42d6bb20e79ad449443d, title = "First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2009", month = apr, day = "24", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2009 ; Conference date: 19-04-2009 Through 24-04-2009", } . EGU General Assembly 2009, Vienna, Austria, 19/04/09.

An assessment of current EOS sensors in monitoring volcanic activity and details of improvements required in the features of future infra-red satellite sensors for volcanic observation @conference{9d1658985847443993f65b65daf64e23, title = "An assessment of current EOS sensors in monitoring volcanic activity and details of improvements required in the features of future infra-red satellite sensors for volcanic observation", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2008", month = apr, day = "18", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2008 ; Conference date: 13-04-2008 Through 18-04-2008", } . EGU General Assembly 2008, Vienna, Austria, 13/04/08.

An investigation into potential precursors to the 2001 Gujarat Earthquake, manifested as thermal anomalies @conference{00bbc11719f244b8b9bc0320193c4e80, title = "An investigation into potential precursors to the 2001 Gujarat Earthquake, manifested as thermal anomalies", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2008", month = apr, day = "18", language = "English", note = "EGU General Assembly 2008 ; Conference date: 13-04-2008 Through 18-04-2008", } . EGU General Assembly 2008, Vienna, Austria, 13/04/08.

CONFERENCE PRESENTATION

Idunn Mons as the landing site of the Venera-D mission @conference{bb5e0271588c42e39696150c65c54c4f, title = "Idunn Mons as the landing site of the Venera-D mission: scientific relevance and possible operational tests on Mount Etna.", keywords = "Venus, Volcanism, Venera-D, Idunn Mons, Etna, Landing Site", author = "Piero D'Incecco and Ghail, \{Richard C.\} and Zasova, \{Ludmila V.\} and Justin Filiberto and Gorinov, \{Dmitry A.\} and Iv{\'a}n L{\'o}pez and \{Di Achille\}, Gaetano and Marco Mastrogiuseppe and Aveni, \{Simone Salvatore\} and Eggers, \{Gabriel L.\} and Goro Komatsu and Carmelo Monaco and Nicola Mari and Matthew Blackett and Marco Cardinale and A. Martynov", year = "2022", month = oct, doi = "10.21046/13MS3-2022", language = "English", pages = "317", note = "13th Moscow Solar System Symposium ; Conference date: 10-10-2022 Through 14-10-2022", url = "https://ms2022.cosmos.ru/", } . 13th Moscow Solar System Symposium, Moscow, Russian Federation, 10/10/22.

Future orbiting and in-situ exploration of Venus: Mount Etna as terrestrial analogue. @conference{763a67c5394a497281a1f5846afaca7d, title = "Future orbiting and in-situ exploration of Venus: Mount Etna as terrestrial analogue.", author = "Piero D'Incecco and Justin Filiberto and Eggers, \{Gabriel L.\} and Iv{\'a}n L{\'o}pez and Nicola Mari and Carmelo Monaco and Giovanni Leone and Gorinov, \{Dmitry A.\} and \{Di Achille\}, Gaetano and A. Martynov and P. Pisarenko and Marco Cardinale and Aveni, \{Simone Salvatore\} and Matthew Blackett and \{El Yazidi\}, Mayssa", year = "2022", month = jun, language = "English", note = "XVII National Congress of Planetary Science ; Conference date: 20-06-2022 Through 24-06-2022", url = "https://indico.ict.inaf.it/event/1836/", } . XVII National Congress of Planetary Science, Napoli, Italy, 20/06/22.

Matthew Blackett, Nathaniel Revell, Craig Lashford, Matteo Rubinato(2021). Modelling the hydrological effects of woodland planting on infiltration and site discharge throughout the winter months using HEC-HMS . 15th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Melbourne, Australia, 24/10/21.

Matthew Blackett(2010). Current status in the remote monitoring of volcanic phenomena . Geological Remote Sensing Group AGM 2010, 1/12/10.

BOOK CHAPTER

Application of thermal remote sensing to the observation of natural hazards @inbook{cd95c06992e54b3abf5c122a88bf7521, title = "Application of thermal remote sensing to the observation of natural hazards", author = "Matthew Blackett", year = "2018", month = mar, day = "21", language = "English", isbn = "978-1-1380-5443-1", editor = "Ramesh Singh and Darius Bartless", booktitle = "Natural Hazards: Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Landslides", publisher = "CRC Press", address = "United Kingdom", } . Natural Hazards: Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Landslides.

Reconstruction in Vietnam @inbook{26bf3fd73acb48f3bb89770b4b47b5f1, title = "Reconstruction in Vietnam: Less to lose! Examples of the experience of Development Workshop France in Vietnam", abstract = "Vietnam is very susceptible to natural hazards. Development Workshop France (DWF) has been working in Vietnam since 1989 following a massive typhoon which hit central Vietnam four years earlier, integrating efforts on post-disaster reconstruction programmes to promote safe construction. Since then DWF has endeavoured to ensure that these programmes are locally informed, using locally adapted technology to support sustainability within the affected communities. This chapter evaluates several of these reconstruction programmes and identifies a number of recommendations for the implementation of such schemes in the future.", keywords = "Disaster risk reduction, Cyclone resistant construction, Safe housing, Community development", author = "Matthew Blackett and Marion MacLellan and Guillaume Chantry and John Norton", year = "2014", month = oct, day = "15", doi = "10.3362/9781780448398.007", language = "English", isbn = "1853398403", pages = "115--136", editor = "Theo Schilderman and Eleanor Parker", booktitle = "Still Standing?", publisher = "Practical Action Publishing", address = "United Kingdom", } . Still Standing?.

How does our approach to reconstruction need to change? @inbook{9dca8f89d1f54b77850e6aa6571f9f9d, title = "How does our approach to reconstruction need to change?", abstract = "Our research into the long-term impact of reconstruction provided new learning, leading to some suggestions for future changes to reconstruction and recovery and our ways of working. We were also able to identify gaps where we need to broaden our understanding, perhaps through future research. However, it is worth noting again that our review of case studies was based on qualitative information only. Numbers interviewed in each case were relatively small, and, therefore, did not produce statistically viable quantitative evidence. As far as possible, we verified individually obtained information through triangulation. We also compared our findings with those of two parallel research efforts with a similar focus. That said we are aware that these case studies are looking back at reconstruction over a very variable timespan, ranging between 4 and 35 years, making comparison of long-term impact difficult even between them. Moreover, they took place in widely differing contexts, and every new crisis is bound to be different again. The positive lessons that have come out of this research will, therefore, always need to be adapted to new disaster situations. Bearing in mind these restrictions, we can see some of the findings from the literature reviewed in Chapter 1 confirmed in our case studies. Other literature findings are harder to verify, partly because our sample of cases may not have covered them sufficiently, but also because these findings may have been evident in the short-term impact and changed in the longer term, a phenomenon confirmed in the research by Duyne Barenstein in Chapter 3.", author = "Matthew Blackett and Eleanor Parker and Theo Schilderman and Marion MacLellan and Daniel Watson", year = "2014", month = oct, day = "15", doi = "10.3362/9781780448398.014", language = "English", isbn = "1853398403", pages = "233--246", editor = "Theo Schilderman and Eleanor Parker", booktitle = "Still Standing?", publisher = "Practical Action Publishing", address = "United Kingdom", } . Still Standing?.

(2014). Reconstruction in Vietnam: less to lose! Examples of the experience of Development Workshop France in Vietnam. Still Standing?: Looking Back at Reconstruction and Disaster Risk Reduction in Housing.

Matthew Blackett(2013). Review of the utility of infrared remote sensing for detecting and monitoring volcanic activity with the case study of shortwave infrared data for lascar volcano from 2001-2005 . Geological Society Special Publications. 380: Remote Sensing of Volcanoes and Volcanic Processes: Integrating Observation and Modelling. Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 107--135. Geological Society

OTHER

Matthew Blackett(2016). Progress in the Infrared Remote Sensing of Volcanic Activity . {MDPI} {AG}

Matthew Blackett, Charley Hill-Butler(2015). Application of Remote Sensing and Earth-Observation Data in Natural Hazard and Risk Studies .

BOOK

Blackett, M.(2013). Review of the utility of infrared remote sensing for detecting and monitoring volcanic activity with the case study of shortwave infrared data for lascar volcano from 2001-2005 . Geological Society Special Publication. 380. (1). Microsoft.AspNetCore.Mvc.Localization.LocalizedHtmlString 107-135.

REPORT

M. Kneafsey, L. Venn, U. Schmutz, B. Bal&#225;zs, L. Trenchard, P. Eyden-Wood, E. Bos, G. Sutton, M. Blackett(2013). Short food supply chains and local food systems in the EU: A state of play of their socio-economic characteristics . European Commission